Research on Economic Policy Uncertainty

Our Research and Commentary

"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (2016)

     -Replication Files:

     -Human Audit Files: Audit Analysis Files; Hard Copies of Audited Articles

     -Guide to Hand-Coding Newspaper Articles: Coding_Guide.pdf

     -2013 vintage (includes additional policy uncertainty measures): "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (2013)

"Policy News and Stock Market Volatility" by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Kyle Kost (2019)

"What Drives Large Stock Market Movements?" by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon (2019)

"Trade policy is upending markets-but not investment" (2019)

"Policy Uncertainty in Japan" (2017)

"Higher Policy Uncertainty Could Be Bad News for Japan's Economy " (2017)

"What is Brexit-related uncertainty doing to United Kingdom growth? " (2016)

"Immigration fears and policy uncertainty" (2015)

"Presentation to G20 Central Bank Governors" (2015)

"The Dog that Barked " (2015)

"Higher policy uncertainty curbs business investment and employment growth " (2015)

"Regulatory Complexity and Policy Uncertainty: Headwinds of Our Own Making" (2015)

"What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?" (2015)

"Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?" (2015)

     - Data

"Policy Uncertainty Matters " (2014)

"Fluctuations in Uncertainty" (2014)

"Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?" (2012)

"Economic recovery and policy uncertainty in the US " (2012)

"U.S. Election Analysis: Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty " (2012)

"The Rocky Balboa recovery " (2012)

"Policy uncertainty and the stalled recovery " (2011)

"Policy Uncertainty Is Choking Recovery" (2011)

Other Academic Work Using Our Data

Google Citations of 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty'

Central Bank Speeches, Congressional Testimony, and Government Reports

November 2019, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, "The New Environment for Monetary Policy"

October 2019, IMF, "Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty"

October 2019, IMF, "Caught in Prolonged Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities"

October 2019, IMF, "Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers"

September 2019, Bank of England, "How has trade policy uncertainty affected the world economy"

August 2019, Mark Carney Speech, Jackson Hole Symposium, "The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System"

August 2019, St. Louis Federal Reserve, "A Sea Change in U.S. Monetary Policy"

July 2019, Indian Ministry of Finance, "Economic Survey 2018-2019"

April 2019, Asian Development Bank, "Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019"

2 April 2019, St Louis Federal Reserve, "Does the Macroeconomy Float in Choppy Waters?"


6 July 2017, Stanley Fischer, "Government Policy and Labor Productivity"

16 February 2017, Congressional Testimony - Stan Veuger, "Policy Uncertainty and the Small Business Economy"

5 December 2016, Bank of England - Mark Carney, "The Spectre of Monetarism"

23 November 2016, Bank of England - Kristin Forbes, "Uncertainty about Uncertainty"

5 October 2016, New Zealand Reserve Bank - John McDermott, "Policy uncertainty from a central bank perspective"

30 June 2016, Bank of England - Mark Carney, "Uncertainty, the economy and policy"

30 September 2015, Progressive Policy Institute, "Business Investment in the United States: Facts, Explanations, Puzzles, and Policies"

27 May 2014, House Revenue Committee, "Stop-Gap Budget Options Put State on Wrong Path"

24 September 2013, Mark Zandi, The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Jobs and the Economy, Before the Senate Committee on Budget

24 September 2013, Chad Stone, Testimony of Chad Stone, Chief Economist, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Before the Senate Committee on Budget

24 April 2013, Kevin Hasset, Testimony to Congress

13 February 2013, Casey Mulligan, Testimony to Congress

22 January 2013, Simon Johnson, Testimony to Congress

31 August 2012, Ben Bernanke, Speech at Jackson Hole

20 September 2012, Olympia Snow, Presentation to the US Senate

20 September 2012, John Taylor, Testimony to Congress - Committee of Judiciary

10 July 2012, John Goodman, Testimony to Congress

18 April 2012, Aparna Mathur, Testimony to Congress

Financial Applications

The items listed here apply our policy uncertainty measures to questions of interest for investors and finance professionals. This list is meant to be an illustrative, not exhaustive, sample of analyses utilizing our work in the financial industry.

19 June 2019, UBS, "It's not all in your head-policy issues are increasingly driving US market volatility"

8 April 2019, Vanguard, "Known unknowns: Uncertainty, volatility, and the odds of recession"

8 July 2018, BlackRock Blog, "Poloz-see uncertainty"

23 January 2018, Deutsche Bank Research, "Economic policy uncertainty in Europe"

27 March 2017, Nikko Asset Management, "Mispricing of Volatility in a Post QE World"

25 January 2017, Deutsche Bank, "Uncertainty is Slowing Capital Expenditure"

December 2016, State Street, "State Street Global Advisors"

8 November 2016, Moody's Investors Service, "Weak Growth Expectations and High Uncertainty are Weighing on Investment"

October 2016, Allianz Investment, "Allianz Investment Strategy Outlook"

July 2016, Morgan Stanley, "FX Pulse"

July 2016, Deloitte, "Deloitte CFO Survey"

July 2016, BlackRock, "Global Investment Outlook"

2 June 2016, Wells Fargo Research, "Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?"

27 July 2015, Joel Prakken, "The Return of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty"

28 October 2014, Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski and Brendan John Lambe, "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Drive CDS Spreads?"

27 June 2014, Goldman Sachs, "The Return of Political Polarization?"

7 March 2014, Goldman Sachs, "Keeping the Faith in Cap-ex Recovery"

24 October 2013, Goldman Sachs, "Back to Fed Basics"

11 October 2013, Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research, "The Debt Limit: Are There Some Lines Congress Won't Cross?"

9 October 2013, Wells Fargo, "Looking for Certainty in an Uncertain World"

2 October 2013, Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research, "Still-firm data are a bulwark against politicians at the gate"

25 September 2013, Goldman Sachs, "Business investment - restrained growth in a subdued recovery"

19 June 2013, Cornerstone, "US Research Quarterly"

29 May 2013, Institutional Investor, "Examining the Contradictions of RORO"

17 April 2013, Instinet, "The uncertainty that matters - the drag on the market"

12 November 2012, Goldman Sachs, "The Buzz: Links between policy uncertainty and equity volatility"

23 October 2012, Deutsche Bank, "Economic Policy Uncertainty Could Be Turning a Corner: Vol Next?"

19 October 2012, Goldman Sachs, "Policy Uncertainty: Is Now the Time?"

17 October 2012, Bloomberg Financial Conditions Watch, "Improving Global Financial Conditions - A Catalyst for Stronger Global Growth in 2013?"

2 September 2012, Nomura, "Russia, Value, Organic GARP, Dividends, Tech, Financials"

22 August 2012, Citibank, "Riding Global Waves of Uncertainty: Asia's Ongoing Journey"

31 June 2012, Fidelity, "Quarterly Market Update"

17 April 2012, State Street Bank - Mr. Risk, "Quantifying Uncertainty"

21 March 2012, BBVA, "Uncertainty: Models and Impacts"